European Preview 2010
by Stephen Turner
With six Premiership teams still in contention for two European titles, chances are high that English sides will be able to repeat the success of recent seasons again this year. As well as usual suspects Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal in the Champions' League, the Europa League is well-stocked with English representatives after Liverpool joined Everton and Fulham in the competition following their elimination from the Champions' League. With European football getting back under way this week, we take a look at the chances of all six sides over the next few months.
Champions' League
Manchester United
Why they'll win it
Quite simply, any side managed by Sir Alex Ferguson has to be in with a chance. Having won in 2008, the vast majority of this side have been there and done it all before, and know exactly what it takes to win the competition. Last year's loss to Barcelona will have also given them an opportunity to learn what it is like to fall at the final hurdle, and few would put it past this United side to use that experience to drive themselves to go one step further this year. Ferguson appears to have settled on a first-choice eleven, in Europe at least, and in Wayne Rooney they have, on current form, one of the best players in the competition leading the line and crucially, getting goals.
Why they won't
On paper, this is a much weaker side than that which finished last year's competition as runners-up. With Cristiano Ronaldo gone, United have become weaker while holders Barcelona and, more directly, Real Madrid have gotten stronger. Questions remain over their strength in defence, as the first-choice pairing of Rio Ferdinand and Nemanja Vidic have only played together a handful of times this season, while Edwin Van Der Sar is not in anything like the same form he was this time last year. On top of this, it is difficult to see where the goals will come from should anything happen to Rooney. At the end of the day, however, United were the second best team in Europe with Carlos Tevez and Ronaldo, for them to become the best without replacing even one of the two seems unlikely.
Chelsea
Why they'll win it
Having come so close in the last two seasons, it is about time that Chelsea took the final step and lifted the Champions' League trophy. After missing out on penalties in 2008 and coming within minutes of reaching last year's final, this is the one competition that Chelsea are desperate to win. There is not one weak area of Chelsea's starting eleven, and their bench is only marginally weaker, as witnessed recently as the accomplished Russian international Yuri Zhirkov has come in to replace the injured Ashley Cole. The likes of Petr Cech, John Terry, Michael Ballack, Frank Lampard and Didier Drogba are arguably some of the greatest players in world football to have never won this competition, and with all of them now either in or just leaving their prime, they will know that this could well be their best chance of all. Throw in the fact that manager Carlo Ancellotti has won the competition twice before (with many suggesting that his success in Europe was precisely the reason for his appointment), and a chairman who seemingly will not rest until this trophy is in his cabinet, and it almost seems inevitable that Chelsea will win this competition soon.
Why they won't
For many of the reasons just listed, Chelsea are under huge pressure to win this competition, and to win it soon. With so much time and money invested in this side, the pressure is immense from both inside and outside the club. The likes of Cech, Terry and Drogba have all demonstrated a lack of the self-discipline and focus needed to go all the way in recent years, and with this group of key players getting closer to the end of their careers each season, the pressure is only getting more intense with each passing season. There has not been much evidence that key players will be adequately replaced when they step down, with the result that there is a definite sense of 'now or never' about Chelsea's European campaigns. Chelsea have made a habit of coming close in the last two seasons, and there is scant evidence that this team will be able to take the final step when the pressure starts to build up in later rounds.
Arsenal
Why they'll win it
Out of the FA Cup and six points behind Chelsea in the league, this is Arsenal's best chance of silverware this season. A relatively kind second-round draw should see them secure passage to the quarter-finals, at which stage they will have as much chance as anyone. With next year's Champions' League place all but sewn up, Arsene Wenger will be able to rest his key players for this competition; A rested Cesc Fabregas is a match for anyone in Europe on his day, and the expected return of Robin Van Persie for the later stages of the competition will be a huge boost.
Why they won't
Player for player, there are at least four sides better than Arsenal in the competition, including the two already discussed. To win it, Arsenal will in all likelihood eventually have to beat either Manchester United or Chelsea, something they have failed to do for a long time. There are major question marks over goalkeeper Manuel Almunia, and even Wenger has dropped hints recently that the Spanish-born Englishman will be replaced this summer. Arsenal are definitely the most consistent side in the Premiership, but consistency is a double-edged sword; while they have no problems dispatching weaker sides, they are usually well beaten by the two sides above them in the table. While the likes of Alex Song, Bacary Sagna and Tomas Rosicky are good players, they are not among Europe's best, and it is difficult to see the third-best side in England becoming the best side in Europe.
Europa League
Liverpool
Why they'll win it
Following an awful first half of the season, Liverpool have actually started to regain their natural place in the league in recent weeks, and apart from their defeat to Arsenal, have actually put a good run of form together since the turn of the year. Having appeared in the final of the Champions' League twice, key players such as Jose Reina, Jamie Carragher and Steven Gerrard have experienced European success before, and should be able to replicate that success amongst a lower standard of opposition. With Gerrard and Fernando Torres, possibly the two best players in the competition, coming back fresh from injuries at the right time, Liverpool have a very good chance, should they decide to make this competition a priority, and have justafiably been installed as favourites by the bookies.
Why they won't
Because of the key phrase in that last sentence - 'should they decide to make this competition a priority'. Surprisingly for a manager who made his name in this very competition, Rafa Benitez has had no qualms about sacrificing progress in cup competitions in order to stand a better chance of league success in the past. In the middle of a four-way battle for the final Champions' League qualifying spot, the league must be the main priority for Liverpool; their financial situation is perilous even with Champions' League money coming in every season, and Benitez has already guaranteed fourth place to the fans and the board. With this in mind, it is unlikely that Benitez will be too bothered about this competition, and it would be no great surprise if the likes of Gerrard and Torres did not even feature.
Everton
Why they'll win it
Despite their lowly league position, David Moyes has actually done an extremely good job of quietly assembling quite a good team at Goodison Park. Ravaged by injury for the first half of the season, Everton now have key players such as Tim Cahill and Mikel Arteta approaching full fitness just in time for the crucial run-in. With Champions' League qualification out of the question and even European qualification seemingly unlikely through their league position, there is no reason why Everton should not give this competition a real go. Should key players stay clear of injury, and given a favourable draw, there is no reason for this side not to go far here.
Why they won't
While more than capable at Premier League level, there is a dearth of European experience at the club, both on and off the pitch, and it is hard to see Moyes' side having the guile needed to go all the way here. Injuries have been a curse this season, and for every key player who returns to the side, there is another ruled out for the rest of the year, with Mikel Arteta/Marouane Fellaini being only one example of this. Fifth for the last two seasons, Moyes will be anxious to climb back up to a respectable top-seven position in the league, and may well prioritise this over European success. While a quarter-final, or even semi-final, is achievable, it is probably their rightful place, all things considered, and it is difficult to see them going any further.
Fulham
Why they'll win it
Thanks to the work of Roy Hodgson, Fulham have become an extremely well-drilled, difficult to beat side in recent seasons. Having already put three goals past Manchester United and Liverpool this season, Fulham have proven themselves to be a match for anyone on their day, at home at least, and despite a lack of European experience in the majority of their squad, senior players like Mark Schwarzer and captain Danny Murphy have done well in this competition before, and they will not fear any team in this competition, as displayed when they were desperately unlucky not to get the better of Roma in the group stages. Having already secured 34 points in the league, they are in no danger of being dragged into a relegation battle, and similarly will not be troubling the top eight between now and May. Comfortably mid-table, and with winnable draws in both the Europa League and FA Cup, there is no reason why Fulham should not focus on these competitions, and they could well be a dark horse for cup success this year, especially considering that England is the only country in which Hodgson has managed and not yet won a trophy.
Why they won't
While they may be a well-organised mid-table side, there is a real lack of a serious cutting edge in this Fulham side, which has been made even worse in recent weeks with the news that Clint Dempsey is out for the rest of the season. While the likes of Bobby Zamora and Damien Duff are good, hard-working players, there is little to suggest that they will be able to open up some of the best defences in Europe. Fulham also have an atrocious record away from home, only beating Portsmouth so far this season, an obvious flaw when playing over two legs. While no-one can doubt the progress that Hodgson has made during his time in West London, European success is likely to be a step too far for a side that were 19th in the Premiership just two years ago.
